Hillary to win US polls, Musharraf to go: Financial Times forecasts

Hillary Clinton will win the US presidency in 2008 while the world’s biggest economy will avoid falling into a full-blown recession, the Financial Times forecast Monday.

In other New Year’s tips for the coming year, the Britain-based daily also predicted that China will not revalue its currency, while President Pervez Musharraf has a greater than 50 percent risk of losing his job.

In the United States, the FT said that Clinton will “most likely” win the November presidential election. “Barring a remarkable upset, the Democratic nominee will win the election, so great is the unpopularity of this (Bush) administration, and Mrs Clinton will be the nominee,” it said.

While noting the surge in favour of her rival Barack Obama, it concluded that “her lead among Democrats is big and well-entrenched. Overturning it is likely to be beyond even Obama.”

On the global economic front, the FT said the credit-crunch which started in the United States this year will continue, adding that “the really big uncertainty is whether further contagion will occur.” But the US economy itself should avoid complete disaster, it forecast. “The US will skate along the brink of recession in early 2008, but should avoid tipping over the brink,” it said.

“Nonetheless, the economy will not bounce back quickly and will instead endure a protracted period of weak growth, during which time it will be vulnerable to any further economic shocks,” it added.

Elsewhere, Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to retain the “real power” in Moscow despite stepping down in March polls, since parliament may well vote to transfer powers to him as prime minister. However, “he is not in a position to become a dictator” as power is divided in the Kremlin, it added. Musharraf, whose stormy 2007 was rocked in its final days by the assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto, would face worse in the coming year.

“Musharraf’s supporters in the US and in the Pakistani military may conclude that he is too tainted and divisive a figure to merit further support. A period of increased instability is now inevitable. “There is a better than even chance that Musharraf will not be president by the end of the year,” it said.